Charlie Cook has released his latest rankings for the 2008 Senate seats.
Some things to note:
-Cook believes that as many as seven Republican senators could retire this cycle and only one Democrat (Johnson). To put this in perspective, there were only four actual retirements in 2005-2006 with only one of them being a Republican, Dayton (D-MN), Sarbanes (D-MD), Jeffords (I-VT), and Frist (R-TN).
-The only two Democrats who are not considered safe are Landrieu (leans Dem) and Johnson (Likely Dem) (possible retirement)
The hard numbers of the 2005-2006 cycle should have given the Republicans a built-in defense against the Dems taking the Senate (they had a 55-45 advantage at the time) but even then they couldn't prevent it. This time around there are a large number of Republican retirements, quite a few of them in states which are likely to be swing states in 2008 (Virginia and New Mexico come to mind). Even if no one else retires we're still in a very good position to build a filibuster-proof Senate majority by the end of the 2009-2010 cycle.
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For the most part. The only places I’d disagree are Texas and Oklahoma. Both Cornyn and Inhofe are heavily favored, but I think Democrats ahve some solid second-tier candidates in Noriega, and Wattsin Texas and Rice in Oklahoma.
Is Kentucky really solid Rep? I don’t think so.
That Daschle was the first Senate leader to lose a race in like over 100 years.
I found interesting was Domenici’s inclusion on the Likely Rep, section. It would be understandable if he thought Domenici was going to retire but because of Warner’s spot in the safe section, it leads me to believe that he thinks Domenici will face a competitive race even if he stays
Barry Goldwater beat Ernest McFarland in 1952, Scott Lucas (D) was beat by Everett Dirksen (R) in Illinois in 1950, and Frederick Van Huys (D) beat James Watson (R) in Indiana in 1932. And the practice of having a Senate leader was only instituted until the 1920s, so 100 years ago there was no such thing as a “Majority Leader” or “Minority Leader”.
Every Senator has to run for re-election, including the party leaders, and never has a Senate leader been given a pass because they were the Senate leader. The only thing that happened differently in 2004 was that Bill Frist, the other party’s Senate Leader, came to South Dakota to campaign for John Thune. That was the first time that the Senate leader from the other party actively campaigned against the other Senate leader.
So if Harry Reid wants to follow in those steps and come to Kentucky, I’m sure Mitch McConnell will welcome him there personally.